Know what your affiliate funnel could earn—and what it could cost.
Model one-time commissions or recurring subscriptions. Include traffic growth, refunds, churn, and acquisition costs, then compare three scenarios before committing your budget.
Affiliate Commission Calculator
The starting values are an illustrative example, not an earnings claim. This page’s tool processes inputs locally in your browser.
Read the forecast as a decision model—not an income promise
The calculator follows your funnel: visitors → affiliate clicks → new customers → commission. It keeps those steps separate so you can identify which assumption deserves investigation. A higher payout does not necessarily make an offer more profitable if it converts poorly, reverses frequently, or costs more to promote.
A simple worked example
10,000 visitors at a 10% click-through rate produce 1,000 affiliate clicks. A 3% click-to-customer conversion rate produces 30 expected customers. At an $80 order value and 25% commission, gross commission is $600. After 5% reversals, retained commission is $570. Subtract $200 in monthly costs and modeled profit is $370 per month.
How recurring commissions are modeled
Each month creates a new customer cohort. New customers receive their first bill in their acquisition month. Older cohorts shrink according to the monthly churn rate, and stop generating commission when they reach your entered paid-month limit.
For a cohort acquired a months ago, expected eligible customers equal new customers × (1 − churn)a, provided the cohort remains within the commission term. Fractional customer counts represent expected averages, not partial transactions.
Use the sensitivity comparison correctly
The lower and higher scenarios change only the click-to-customer conversion rate by −25% and +25%, capped at 100%. They are not statistical confidence intervals. Traffic, payout rules, churn, and costs stay unchanged. For a more cautious forecast, also test weaker traffic growth, higher reversals, and shorter commission eligibility.
What this forecast does not include
This is an earned-commission model, not a cash-flow statement. It excludes existing subscribers, payout delays, taxes, exchange rates, minimum payout thresholds, tiered payouts, attribution loss, upgrades, and program-specific approval timing. Reconcile the assumptions with your affiliate agreement and actual platform reports.
Frequently asked questions
Is affiliate commission the same as profit?
No. Commission is revenue from the program. Profit subtracts costs. This calculator deducts fixed monthly costs, the entered cost per affiliate click, and a one-time setup cost.
What is the difference between churn and reversals?
Churn reduces future recurring customers. Reversals reduce commission from an otherwise modeled bill or sale. The calculator applies them separately; avoid counting the same loss twice in your assumptions.
Why can customer counts contain decimals?
Forecasts calculate expected outcomes across many possible periods. An expectation of 7.5 customers does not mean half a person can buy; actual monthly results will be whole numbers and can vary substantially.
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